First Day of the Month

  • Updated:

    07.31.07
  • Views:

Description:

This is a pattern on SPY.This patterns trigger's a BUY at the open and SELL at the close on the first day of the month if the following occurs (since 1997):

Pattern:
- if the last two days of the prior month were down: 24 occurrences, 18 successful trades (75%) for an average return per trade of 0.63%

These are impressive returns considering that SPY has been down an average of -0.02% per day since 1997.

Despite the relatively small number of occurrences the results are statistically significant due to the difference between the average return in these results and the average return normally for SPY. To the left are some more interesting stats on the different ETFs for the various indices.

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