Cypress Capital - Richard Arvedlund Portfolio - Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas

Cypress Capital - Richard Arvedlund

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Date updated:03-26-2007

Featured in a Barrons interview on November 13, 2006. Arvedlund was fairly bearish on the US economy, stating that all the preconditions are in place for a recession. For instance: "whenever housing starts and permits drop by the rates of decline that have been exhibited - 10% to 20% -it has always preceded a recession." Also, "the other area that will hurt the economy is that all the major domestic auto makers have announced double-digit declines for the quarter and early 2007." And, "The third precondition for a recession is a flat to inverted yield curve. Flat to inverted yield curves only occur before recession, not slowdowns." In other words, "We now think there is a 40% to 50% probability of a recession. Next year should be a very difficult time for the US economy."

Although he's neutral on the effects of Dems vs Republicans on the economy he's nervous about any increase in the minimum wage: "That will raise unit labor costs throughout the economy...It will impact profit margins. It will definitely have an impact on profit margins."

As of 12/31/06

STA
Sta
$0.00
N/A
$N/A

The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.

People owning STA also tend to own: BNY C EWM FCO JAVLX MAGS OAKMX

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

DFG
Delphi Financial
$24.21
+1.13%
$24.02

People owning DFG also tend to own: B BUCY COG CVD EV FLIR HSC

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

VZ
Verizon Communica
$29.73
-0.37%
$29.93

Like the dividend yield and thinks they will be able to refinance all of their debt at lower interest rates.

People owning VZ also tend to own: AA AIG IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

WIN
Windstream Corpor
$10.96
+1.39%
$10.84

Dividend yield of 7%, enormous cash flow, converting rural customers to broadband and wireless.

People owning WIN also tend to own: ALD BMY CNE DSX GAIN GOOD HTE

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

SVU
Supervalu Inc. Co
$17.13
+6.60%
$16.06

Like management. "Its a defensive name in a sector where unit growth will continue fairly steady and won't be impacted by economic trends."

People owning SVU also tend to own: FREVS.OB ITW MMM UNP BMY BUD MIC

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

JBLU
Jetblue Airways C
$5.41
+2.46%
$5.30

"The most sensitivity to a decline in oil prices and rates."

People owning JBLU also tend to own: ASR APC APP AUY AVNX BMD CBI

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

DOW
Dow Chemical Comp
$29.84
+1.50%
$29.68

4% dividend which they just raised. THey are repurchasing shares and they are at a low multiple. "They will benefit if, as we expect, raw-material costs come down."

People owning DOW also tend to own: AFL BA BAC BAX BEN CMCSA CSCO

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

CEF
Central Fund Of C
$13.93
0.00%
$13.98

Play on silver and gold.

People owning CEF also tend to own: AAPL PGWC SUNW YHOO GLD IAG SLV

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

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